Melissa Melissa

Houthi forces have moved into positions around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait just as the Red Sea has become more important to Saudi oil exports. The alternative route around Hormuz is becoming harder to rely on.

Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mokha and then Mayun, also known as Perim, an island sitting inside the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Reuters described the advance as putting the group in a position to control a critical shipping route. AP reported that the gains brought Houthi forces into the heart of the strait, where they could exert greater pressure over commercial traffic moving between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

The geography matters more now because Saudi Arabia has been relying more heavily on Red Sea exports as Hormuz became dangerous. Oil sent across Saudi Arabia through the East–West pipeline reaches Yanbu, where tankers either head south toward Bab el-Mandeb or take longer routes through the Suez system.

Red Sea traffic was already down roughly 60 percent from pre-Houthi-attack levels. Saudi Red Sea oil loadings also fell sharply in August, according to the International Energy Agency figures cited by AP.

Why it matters

Bab el-Mandeb had become part of the answer to the Hormuz problem. Houthi territorial gains reduce the reliability of that answer.

Saudi exporters can still reroute some cargoes north through Suez and onward around Europe and Africa, but that takes substantially longer and costs more. AP reported that the alternative can more than double transit time to some Asian destinations.

The immediate question is less whether the Houthis can close the strait outright than how much additional cost, delay, and uncertainty the route can absorb before exporters and buyers have to compensate somewhere else again.


Sources

Associated PressThe Houthi advance in Yemen raises concerns about a key shipping choke point

ReutersHouthi advance in Yemen puts U.S. in a new bind

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