TOWARD RECONSTITUTION
Prediction Archive
Keep the original prediction.Keep the whole record.
What the Risk Monitor expected to happen, what happened afterward, and what the evidence shows.
—Published forecasts
—Open / awaiting resolution
—Resolved records
—Dated evidence updates
THE LEDGER
Every forecast, on the record.
Search the archive or narrow the record by status, publication year, or system. Open a forecast to examine its original reasoning, test, sources, and subsequent evidence.
Loading the published record…ORIGINAL RECORDS · DATED UPDATES
Retrieving published predictions…
HOW TO READ THE ARCHIVE
A prediction remains accountable to its original terms.
The publication date establishes when the forecast was made. The target date establishes when it should be tested. The original claim and test criteria are preserved, even when later evidence changes the interpretation.
Evidence updates are dated separately. Outcomes are recorded only when the evidence supports a determination. A passed target date may require review; it is not automatically classified as a failure.
READ THE METHODOLOGY →